Stanley rallies from 8 back to win in Phoenix

Golf Betting Lines

02/05/2012 - Scottsdale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A week ago, Kyle Stanley blew an eight- stroke lead in the final round to cost himself his first PGA Tour victory.

This week, Stanley made the big rally.

He fired a six-under 65 Sunday to come from eight shots back to win the Phoenix Open by one stroke over Ben Crane.

Stanley finished his first tour win at 15-under-par 269.

"That's golf. You need to accept the fact that there's going to be ups and downs. You just can't get too high or too low, but I'm just thankful I had so much support from so many people," Stanley said in a televised interview.

"That really helped me put [last week] behind me and move on. It's been great."

Crane, who played alongside Stanley, closed with a five-under 66 at the TPC Scottsdale to take second at minus-14.

Spencer Levin started the round with a six-stroke lead, and it was seven after the first hole. He had a solid par save on the 10th, but dropped four strokes in the next five holes to fall out of the lead.

Levin stumbled to a four-over 75 to end alone in third at 13-under-par 271.

Not only was Stanley eight clear to start the final round last week, but he was still three ahead on the 18th fairway. He then spun his third shot back into the water and that led to a closing triple-bogey. That was followed by a playoff loss to Brandt Snedeker.

Levin parred the first and was seven clear as Webb Simpson tripped to a bogey on the first to slip into a tie for second. However, Levin stumbled to bogeys on four and six as his lead dipped to three over Crane, who went four-under par in a three-hole span from the second.

Meanwhile, Stanley was quietly making a move. He poured in birdies on two and three. After four pars in a row, Stanley rolled in a birdie on the eighth.

Stanley got within three of Levin with a birdie at the par-four 11th.

Levin parred four in a row from the seventh, including a key par-saving putt from 12 feet out on No. 10. But trouble loomed for the leader.

At the par-four 11th, Levin dumped his second shot into a greenside bunker and failed to save par from there. He again found sand off the tee at the par- three 12th.

Levin blasted to 10 feet, but his par putt slid by the left edge. His lead was down to one.

Stanley, who was two groups in front of Levin, two-putted for birdie on the par-five 13th to join Levin in the lead at 14-under. Stanley came right back with a 12-foot birdie putt at 14 to grab the outright lead by himself.

Levin responded with a 14-foot birdie effort of his own on the 14th to forge a tie at minus-15, but the 15th would be Levin's undoing.

The 27-year-old Levin drove under a bush, then putted his ball back to the first cut of rough. His five-iron third shot came up well short in the water. He chipped on with his fifth, but two-putted for double-bogey to slide two back.

Stanley two-putted for par on 15, then saved par from eight feet out on 16. He hit a remarkable chip shot from under a cactus and onto the green at 17. Stanley two-putted from 22 feet.

At the 18th, Stanley hit his drive left and got a drop from the grandstands. He knocked his second to 17 feet and two-putted for a closing par.

"I had a couple of squirrelly tee shots, but my recovery shots were fantastic. I made a really good par save there on 15, 16 as well. It was nice to make that four-footer at the last," said Stanley on TV.

Crane had a chance to join Stanley at 15-under, but failed to hole his birdie chip at the last. Then, Stanley had to wait to see if Levin could catch him.

Levin missed the 16th green left and got up and down for par. After he failed to convert a 27-footer for birdie on 17, Levin needed to hole out for eagle at the last to force a playoff.

Levin's approach on 18 landed close to the hole, but rolled out to 40 feet. He two-putted for par to end alone in third and give Stanley his first tour win.

D.J. Trahan closed with a 66 to take fourth place at 12-under-par 272. Kevin Na (65), Bubba Watson (70) and Brendan Steele (64) shared fifth at minus-11.

NOTES: Stanley earned $1.098 million for the win...Levin is one of six players to have lost a final-round lead of at last six strokes...Last year's winner Mark Wilson matched Steele for the low round of the day with his 64, and that helped Wilson jump 41 spots into a share of 19th at minus-seven...D.A. Points will defend his title at the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am next week against a field that includes Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

Lasvgas Golf Betting News

<< Presbyterian football player dies
Clinton, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Presbyterian College student-athlete Kyle L. Allen died Sunday morning after being found unconscious in a campus fraternity house. The cause is being investigated by Laurens County Coroner Nick Nichols. Alle

<< Giants lead Patriots 9-0 after 1st quarter
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eli Manning started the game 9-for-9 and threw a two-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz, giving the Giants a 9-0 lead over the Patriots after the first quarter of the Super Bowl. New York got two points on

<< Patriots TE Gronkowski active for Super Bowl
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is active for the Super Bowl. Gronkowski had been listed as questionable on the injury report for Sunday's game against the New York Giants because of a high l

<< LSU upsets No. 6 Kentucky
Baton Rouge, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adrienne Webb scored 19 points to lead LSU as it upset No. 6 Kentucky 61-51 at Pete Maravich Assembly Center on Sunday. LaSondra Barrett added 12 points for the Lady Tigers (15-9, 5-5 SEC),

<< Miami upsets No. 7 Duke in overtime
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Early in the season, all Reggie Johnson could do was look on as his Miami-Florida Hurricanes got off to a disappointing 5-4 start. Recovering from offseason knee surgery to repair a torn meniscu

Patriots lead Giants 10-9 after 1st half >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Brady's four-yard touchdown pass to Danny Woodhead ended a 96-yard drive and gave the Patriots a 10-9 lead over the Giants at halftime of the Super Bowl. Brady was 10-for-10 on the drive and comp

Monaco titles in Chile >>
Vina del Mar, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top seed Juan Monaco defeated seventh- seeded fellow Argentine Carlos Berlocq 6-3, 6-7 (1-7), 6-1 in the championship match at the VTR Open clay-court tennis event. The 27-year-old Monaco now owns fou

Patriots lead Giants 17-15 after 3rd quarter >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Brady set a Super Bowl record for consecutive completions and threw a 12-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Hernandez that helped the Patriots take a 17-15 lead over the Giants after three quarters. Brady's

Giants lose TEs Ballard, Beckum to injuries >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants lost tight ends Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to knee injuries in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Patriots. Ballard went down with a left knee injury early in the fourth quarter. Re

Again! Giants top Patriots to win Super Bowl >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eli Manning and the New York Giants did it again, beating the New England Patriots with another game-winning drive in the Super Bowl. Ahmad Bradshaw scored on a six-yard touchdown run with 57 seconds remai

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.