Nine turf horses entered in Arlington Million XXVII

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/04/2009 - Arlington Heights, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saturday's running of the 27th Arlington Million at Arlington Park has attracted nine of the finest grass runners in the world. The 1 1/4 mile race is part of the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" program allowing the winner to gain automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf this year at Santa Anita Park.

Gio Ponti is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and will start from post six with Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. The four-year-old colt is owned by Castleton Lyons and trained by Christophe Clement.

Gio Ponti comes into the Million the winner of three straight stakes races, including the Frank E. Kilroe and Manhattan Handicaps, and Man o' War Stakes. As a three-year-old in 2008, Gio Ponti won the Hill Prince Stakes and Virginia Derby.

"He's a very good horse, very consistent," said Clement. "This just confirms that at the moment, I'm afraid, he's got to be the leader of the turf division here."

A winner of eight of 13 career starts, the colt has banked more than $1.5 million.

Veteran thoroughbred Einstein is the 4-1 second choice in the program for owner Midnight Cry Stable. The seven-year-old will be ridden by Julien Leparoux from the inside post.

Trained by Helen Pitts-Blasi, Einstein was fifth in last year's Million after stumbling at the break.

"It's going to be very tough," said Pitts-Blasi of Saturday's Arlington Million. "There are a lot of nice horses in there, and it's probably a lot tougher than it was last year.

"It would mean a lot to win the Million. There's a lot of prestige to the Arlington Million. With what happened last year and as hard as he tries, you always want the best for him."

Einstein is the winner of 11 of his 26 lifetime starts for better than $2.6 million. This year, in his only turf race, he won the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day. Also in 2009 he won the Clark and Santa Anita Handicaps. He was third in both the Donn and Stephen Foster Handicaps this year.

The top-rated European for the Million is Cima de Triomphe, owned by Teruya Yoshida. The four-year-old colt is 9-2 in the morning-line and will start from post eight.

Trained by Luca Cumani, the colt has won five of 13 career starts for $894,026. He is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Eclipse Stakes in Great Britain last month.

Here is the complete field for the Arlington Million in post position order: Einstein, 4-1; Presious Passion, 6-1; Just as Well, 12-1; Stotsfold, 12-1; Mr. Sidney, 10-1; Gio Ponti, 5-2; Gloria de Campeao, 5-1; Cima de Triomphe, 9-2 and Recapturetheglory, 20-1.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.